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ABC vs Vila Nova — Serie B 2026

ABC
ABC
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Vila Nova
Vila Nova
11/25/2023Serie BSerie B · Round 38Estádio Maria Lamas Farache

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

ABC35%
×Draw30%
Vila Nova35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ABC
1.04
Vila Nova
1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 143 away

creates per match

ABC
0.79
Vila Nova
0.92

allows per match

ABC
1.16
Vila Nova
1.29

finishing

ABC+0.00on par
Vila Nova+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ABC ↓

Vila Nova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

ABC or draw
65%
ABC or Vila Nova
70%
Draw or Vila Nova
65%

Winning margin

ABC wins by 2+
14%
Vila Nova wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

ABC 1+ goals
65%
ABC 2+ goals
28%
ABC 3+ goals
9%
Vila Nova 1+ goals
65%
Vila Nova 2+ goals
28%
Vila Nova 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

ABC (draw refunded)
50%
Vila Nova (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ABC at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

Vila Nova away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.29 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ABC attack 0.79 + Vila Nova defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.04

Vila Nova attack 0.92 + ABC defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

ABC scores more
35%
level
30%
Vila Nova scores more
35%

ABC at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "ABC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: ABC 3–2 Vila Nova

ABC beat Vila Nova 3-2 in Serie B on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Maria Lamas Farache in Natal, Rio Grande do Norte.