ABC 3–2 Sao Jose: Result & Stats | Serie C

ABC

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Sao Jose

Felipinho 90+2'

Wellington 82'

Fábio Lima 63'

Vinicius Moura 69'

Gabriel Lima 27'

8/6/2022

Serie C · Round 18Estádio Maria Lamas Farache

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

ABC47%

×Draw26%

Sao Jose27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ABCExpected goals in this matchSao Jose

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.04

ABC

1.47

Sao Jose

1.04

ABC creates 41% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 59 away

1.35

creates per match

1.02

1.06

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

ABC

1.35

Sao Jose

1.02

allows per match

ABC

1.06

Sao Jose

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ABC+0.00on par

Sao Jose+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ABC ↓

Sao Jose →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

ABC or draw

73%

ABC or Sao Jose

74%

Draw or Sao Jose

53%

Winning margin

ABC wins by 2+

23%

Sao Jose wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

ABC 1+ goals

77%

ABC 2+ goals

43%

ABC 3+ goals

18%

Sao Jose 1+ goals

65%

Sao Jose 2+ goals

28%

Sao Jose 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

ABC (draw refunded)

64%

Sao Jose (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ABC at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.06 · 52 matches

Sao Jose away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.58 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ABC attack 1.35 + Sao Jose defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.47

Sao Jose attack 1.02 + ABC defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

ABC scores more

47%

level

26%

Sao Jose scores more

27%

ABC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "ABC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

Marcos Vinicius

27'

Gabriel Lima

45'

Samuel

46'

Guilherme Garré← Júlio Rusch

46'

Matheus Rocha← Marcos Vinicius

46'

Pablo← Mazola

50'

Jadson

58'

Vinicius Moura← Thayllon

61'

63'

69'

69'

78'

78'

Gustavo França← Fábio Lima

78'

Guilherme Biteco← Crystopher

82'

Wellington

85'

Bruno Ferreira← Samuel

85'

90+8'

90+8'

90+10'

90+11'

90+12'

Afonso← Wallyson

90+2'

Felipinho

ABC

Sao

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Fernando Marchiori

46'▲Guilherme Garré←▼Júlio Rusch

46'▲Matheus Rocha←▼Marcos Vinicius

78'▲Calyson←▼Erick Varão

78'▲Gustavo França←▼Fábio Lima

90+12'▲Afonso←▼Wallyson

ABC substitutes

GarréRochaCalysonFrançaAfonsoNunesNogueiraGeovaniJefinhoPajeuWalfridoPionteck

Manager: Paulo Henrique Marques

46'▲Pablo←▼Mazola

58'▲Vinicius Moura←▼Thayllon

78'▲Guilherme Biteco←▼Crystopher

85'▲Bruno Ferreira←▼Samuel

85'▲Fabiano←▼Tiago Pedra

Sao Jose substitutes

PabloMouraBitecoFerreiraFabianoVillaJesusMarcoMonteiro

ABC 3 – 2 Sao Jose

ABC beat Sao Jose 3-2 in Serie C on August 6, 2022.

Goals: Gabriel Lima (27'), Fábio Lima (63'), Vinicius Moura (69'), Wellington (82'), Felipinho (90+2').

The match was played at Estádio Maria Lamas Farache in Natal, Rio Grande do Norte.

ABC vs Sao Jose — Serie C 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

ABC 3 – 2 Sao Jose