ABC 2–1 Remo: Result & Stats | Serie C

ABC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Remo

Matheus Carvalho 72'

Luan 61'

Moisés Lucas 83'

5/26/2018

Serie C · Round 7Estádio Maria Lamas Farache (Natal, Rio Grande do Norte)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

ABC44%

×Draw28%

Remo28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ABCExpected goals in this matchRemo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.98

ABC

1.29

Remo

0.98

ABC creates 32% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 64 away

1.35

creates per match

0.89

1.06

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

ABC

1.35

Remo

0.89

allows per match

ABC

1.06

Remo

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ABC+0.00on par

Remo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ABC ↓

Remo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

ABC or draw

72%

ABC or Remo

72%

Draw or Remo

56%

Winning margin

ABC wins by 2+

20%

Remo wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

ABC 1+ goals

72%

ABC 2+ goals

37%

ABC 3+ goals

14%

Remo 1+ goals

62%

Remo 2+ goals

26%

Remo 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

ABC (draw refunded)

61%

Remo (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ABC at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.06 · 52 matches

Remo away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.23 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ABC attack 1.35 + Remo defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.29

Remo attack 0.89 + ABC defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

ABC scores more

44%

level

28%

Remo scores more

28%

ABC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "ABC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

61'

Luan

62'

Matheus Carvalho← Maxwell

69'

Nininho← Luiz Gustavo

69'

Rafael Bastos← Everton

72'

Matheus Carvalho

74'

Jorge Eduardo← Luan

79'

Gabriel← Jayme

80'

Vitinho← Higor Leite

83'

Moisés Lucas

ABC

Remo

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Luan

Manager: Ranielle Ribeiro

62'▲Matheus Carvalho←▼Maxwell

74'▲Jorge Eduardo←▼Luan

80'▲Vitinho←▼Higor Leite

ABC substitutes

CarvalhoEduardoVitinhoGomesCardosoErivéltonHenriqueJardelRafinhaSamuelFeitosaVinícius

Manager: Givanildo Oliveira

69'▲Nininho←▼Luiz Gustavo

69'▲Rafael Bastos←▼Everton

79'▲Gabriel←▼Jayme

Remo substitutes

NininhoBastosGabrielDiasEliandroMartonyMiguelBrasília

ABC 2 – 1 Remo

ABC beat Remo 2-1 in Serie C on May 26, 2018.

Goals: Luan (61'), Matheus Carvalho (72'), Moisés Lucas (83').

The match was played at Estádio Maria Lamas Farache (Natal, Rio Grande do Norte).

ABC vs Remo — Serie C 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

ABC 2 – 1 Remo