ABC 0–3 Nautico Recife: Result & Stats | Serie C

ABC

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Nautico Recife

Thiago Lopes 79'

Paulo Sérgio 60'

Gustavo Maia 32'

4/27/2024

Serie C · Round 2Estádio Maria Lamas Farache

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

ABC42%

×Draw27%

Nautico Recife31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ABCExpected goals in this matchNautico Recife

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.09

ABC

1.32

Nautico Recife

1.09

ABC creates 21% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 51 away

1.35

creates per match

1.12

1.06

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

ABC

1.35

Nautico Recife

1.12

allows per match

ABC

1.06

Nautico Recife

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ABC+0.00on par

Nautico Recife+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ABC ↓

Nautico Recife →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

ABC or draw

69%

ABC or Nautico Recife

73%

Draw or Nautico Recife

58%

Winning margin

ABC wins by 2+

19%

Nautico Recife wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

ABC 1+ goals

73%

ABC 2+ goals

38%

ABC 3+ goals

15%

Nautico Recife 1+ goals

66%

Nautico Recife 2+ goals

30%

Nautico Recife 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

ABC (draw refunded)

58%

Nautico Recife (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ABC at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.06 · 52 matches

Nautico Recife away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.29 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ABC attack 1.35 + Nautico Recife defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.32

Nautico Recife attack 1.12 + ABC defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

ABC scores more

42%

level

27%

Nautico Recife scores more

31%

ABC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "ABC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

Pedro Felipe

32'

Gustavo Maia

34'

L. Barcía← Cléo Silva

40'

Sousa

49'

Erick Varao

60'

Paulo Sérgio

65'

Adryan← Wallyson

65'

Daniel Cruz← Erick Varão

65'

Romário← Manoel

65'

Sammuel← Ruan

65'

Lorran← Wendel Lessa

65'

Thiago Lopes← Gustavo Maia

69'

Luiz Paulo← Diego Matos

69'

Patrick Allan← Sousa

77'

Daniel

78'

Diego Jardel← Gabriel Santiago

79'

Thiago Lopes

ABC

Nautico

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Marcelo Cabo

65'▲Adryan←▼Wallyson

65'▲Daniel Cruz←▼Erick Varão

65'▲Romário←▼Manoel

65'▲Sammuel←▼Ruan

78'▲Diego Jardel←▼Gabriel Santiago

ABC substitutes

AdryanCruzRomárioSammuelJardelWelligtonBebetoThuramOliveiraReisFerrazArantes

Manager: Mazola Júnior

34'▲L. Barcía←▼Cléo Silva

65'▲Lorran←▼Wendel Lessa

65'▲Thiago Lopes←▼Gustavo Maia

69'▲Luiz Paulo←▼Diego Matos

69'▲Patrick Allan←▼Sousa

Nautico Recife substitutes

BarcíaLorranLopesPauloAllanRomárioBelãoMatosJúniorSantosThalissinho

Serie C: ABC 0–3 Nautico Recife

Nautico Recife beat ABC 3-0 in Serie C on April 27, 2024.

Goals: Gustavo Maia (32'), Paulo Sérgio (60'), Thiago Lopes (79').

The match was played at Estádio Maria Lamas Farache in Natal, Rio Grande do Norte.

ABC vs Nautico Recife — Serie C 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Serie C: ABC 0–3 Nautico Recife