ABC 3–3 Maringá: Result & Stats | Serie C

ABC

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Maringá

Matheus Martins 73'

Juninho 58'

Octavio 22'

Maranhao 90'

Danielzinho 83'

Ronald Carvalho 63'

7/19/2025

Serie C · Round 13Estadio Maria Lamas Farache

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

ABC40%

×Draw25%

Maringá35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ABCExpected goals in this matchMaringá

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.35

ABC

1.47

Maringá

1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 17 away

1.35

creates per match

1.65

1.06

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

ABC

1.35

Maringá

1.65

allows per match

ABC

1.06

Maringá

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ABC+0.00on par

Maringá+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ABC ↓

Maringá →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

ABC or draw

65%

ABC or Maringá

75%

Draw or Maringá

60%

Winning margin

ABC wins by 2+

19%

Maringá wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

ABC 1+ goals

77%

ABC 2+ goals

43%

ABC 3+ goals

18%

Maringá 1+ goals

74%

Maringá 2+ goals

39%

Maringá 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

ABC (draw refunded)

54%

Maringá (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ABC at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.06 · 52 matches

Maringá away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ABC attack 1.35 + Maringá defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.47

Maringá attack 1.65 + ABC defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

ABC scores more

40%

level

25%

Maringá scores more

35%

ABC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "ABC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

27'

34'

36'

37'

39'

Vinicius Amaral← Julio Rodrigues

46'

Rodolfo Filemon← Renato Vischi

46'

Matheus Martins← Joaozinho

46'

Danielzinho← Cristovam

58'

Juninho

63'

Ronald Carvalho

66'

Robertinho← Evanderson

66'

Buga← Everton Morelli

67'

Jenison← Ytalo

70'

73'

75'

76'

79'

Carlos Eduardo← Wallyson

83'

Danielzinho

90+3'

Pedro Paulo

90'

Maranhao

ABC

Maringá

1

Batista

13

▼

Tito

3

⚽

Carvalho

23

Miller

2

▼

Cristovam

5

▼

Evanderso

33

Rhuan

18

Vitor

40

▼

Morelli

19

▼

Rodrigues

99

⚽

Maranhao

12

Paulo

5

▼

Ezequiel

13

▼

Vischi

23

Islan

6

Sampaio

4

⚽

Octavio

17

Leite

25

⚽

Juninho

15

▼

Joaozinho

19

▼

Ytalo

11

▼

Wallyson

Manager: Evaristo Piza

36'▲Lucas Mota←▼Ezequiel

46'▲Rodolfo Filemon←▼Renato Vischi

46'▲Matheus Martins←▼Joaozinho

67'▲Jenison←▼Ytalo

79'▲Carlos Eduardo←▼Wallyson

ABC substitutes

1Garcia3Filemon2Mota16Manoel26Rocha21Randerson10Oziel8Eduardo18Junior7Martins20Carlos9Jenison

Manager: Jorge Castilho

39'▲Vinicius Amaral←▼Julio Rodrigues

46'▲Danielzinho←▼Cristovam

66'▲Robertinho←▼Evanderson

66'▲Buga←▼Everton Morelli

76'▲Matheus Melo←▼Tito

Maringá substitutes

25Neto4Alecxander6Felix11Robertinho14Buga16Melo27Ibson29Natalino30Danielzinho36Amaral37Masukake

Match Recap: ABC vs Maringá

ABC and Maringá drew 3-3 in Serie C on July 19, 2025.

Goals: Octavio (22'), Juninho (58'), Ronald Carvalho (63'), Matheus Martins (73'), Danielzinho (83'), Maranhao (90').

The match was played at Estadio Maria Lamas Farache in Natal.

ABC vs Maringá — Serie C 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: ABC vs Maringá