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ABC vs Ituano — Serie B 2026

ABC
ABC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ituano
Ituano
Paulo Sérgio 61'
Yann Rolim 54'
8/14/2023Serie BSerie B · Round 23Estádio Maria Lamas Farache

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

ABC36%
×Draw30%
Ituano34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ABC
1.09
Ituano
1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 57 away

creates per match

ABC
0.70
Ituano
0.96

allows per match

ABC
1.13
Ituano
1.49

finishing

ABC+0.00on par
Ituano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 64Over: 3664%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 57Yes: 4357%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ABC ↓

Ituano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

ABC or draw
66%
ABC or Ituano
70%
Draw or Ituano
64%

Winning margin

ABC wins by 2+
15%
Ituano wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

ABC 1+ goals
66%
ABC 2+ goals
30%
ABC 3+ goals
10%
Ituano 1+ goals
65%
Ituano 2+ goals
28%
Ituano 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

ABC (draw refunded)
52%
Ituano (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ABC at home — creates 0.70, concedes 1.13 · 23 matches

Ituano away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.49 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ABC attack 0.70 + Ituano defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.09

Ituano attack 0.96 + ABC defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

ABC scores more
36%
level
30%
Ituano scores more
34%

ABC at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "ABC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
Matheus AnjosABCABC · F
8.2

Match Events

30'
Matheus Cadorini
41'
Nathan Melo
43'
Rafael Carvalheira
50'
Paulo Sérgio← Evandro
53'
Romário
54'
Yann Rolim
59'
Ramon← A. Rodríguez
61'
Paulo Sérgio↳ Matheus Anjos
67'
Felipe Saraiva← Hélio Borges
67'
Emerson Urso← Wesley Pomba
69'
Wellington Reis← Nathan Melo
69'
Wallyson← Anderson
77'
Wellington Reis
77'
Davi Araújo← Yann Rolim
77'
Vinícius Balieiro← Rafael Carvalheira
86'
Pacheco← Iury
90+3'
Ramon Vinicius
90+6'
Vinicius Balieiro

Possession

ABC: 47Ituano: 5347%ABC

Shots

ABC: 11Ituano: 911ABC

Pass accuracy

ABC: 66Ituano: 7248%ABC

Statistics

ABCItuano
Overview
47%Possession53%
11Total Shots9
4Corners5
15Fouls24
Shots
11Total Shots9
2On Target3
8Off Target4
1Blocked2
5Inside Box6
6Outside Box3
Passing
47%Possession53%
295Total Passes330
196Accurate Passes236
66%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
15Fouls24
4Yellow Cards3
1Offsides1

Serie B: ABC 1–1 Ituano

ABC and Ituano drew 1-1 in Serie B on August 14, 2023.

Goals: Yann Rolim (54'), Paulo Sérgio (61').

Ituano controlled possession (53%) and registered 9 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estádio Maria Lamas Farache in Natal, Rio Grande do Norte.