ABC 1–1 CSA: Result & Stats | Serie C

ABC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

CSA

Adeilson Maranhao 90'

Silas 90'

4/21/2025

Serie C · Round 2Estadio Maria Lamas Farache

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

ABC42%

×Draw30%

CSA29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ABCExpected goals in this matchCSA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

0.93

ABC

1.18

CSA

0.93

ABC creates 27% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 29 away

1.35

creates per match

0.79

1.06

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

ABC

1.35

CSA

0.79

allows per match

ABC

1.06

CSA

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ABC+0.00on par

CSA+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ABC ↓

CSA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

ABC or draw

71%

ABC or CSA

70%

Draw or CSA

58%

Winning margin

ABC wins by 2+

18%

CSA wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

ABC 1+ goals

69%

ABC 2+ goals

33%

ABC 3+ goals

12%

CSA 1+ goals

61%

CSA 2+ goals

24%

CSA 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

ABC (draw refunded)

59%

CSA (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ABC at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.06 · 52 matches

CSA away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.00 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ABC attack 1.35 + CSA defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.18

CSA attack 0.79 + ABC defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

ABC scores more

42%

level

30%

CSA scores more

29%

ABC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "ABC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

Igor Bahia

28'

Adeilson Maranhao

48'

Enzo

57'

Baianinho← Vander

57'

Tiago Marques← Igor Bahia

59'

Matheus Rocha← Lucas Mota

59'

Danilo Mariotto← Wallyson

66'

Octavio← Windson

66'

Juninho← Jonatha Carlos

72'

Matheus Martins← Carlos Eduardo

76'

Kevyn← Camacho

76'

Silas← Enzo

80'

Lucas Sampaio

85'

Danilo Mariotto

86'

Klenisson← Guilherme Cachoeira

89'

90'

90'

90'

ABC

CSA

1

Felix

2

Albuquerq

3

Betao

6

▼

Enzo

4

Marcao

5

▼

Camacho

7

▼

Vander

8

Nicola

10

Brayann

11

▼

Cachoeira

19

▼

Bahia

1

Garcia

2

▼

Mota

6

Sampaio

4

Bispo

15

▼

Windson

29

Reis

18

▼

Eduardo

8

⚽

Maranhao

19

▼

Wallyson

28

Junior

20

▼

Carlos

Manager: Evaristo Piza

59'▲Matheus Rocha←▼Lucas Mota

59'▲Danilo Mariotto←▼Wallyson

66'▲Octavio←▼Windson

66'▲Juninho←▼Jonatha Carlos

72'▲Matheus Martins←▼Carlos Eduardo

ABC substitutes

12Paulo21Vischi17Octavio3Wendel26Rocha27Ian5Goncalves10Rosa25Juninho7Martins9Mariotto23Islan

57'▲Baianinho←▼Vander

57'▲Tiago Marques←▼Igor Bahia

76'▲Kevyn←▼Camacho

76'▲Silas←▼Enzo

86'▲Klenisson←▼Guilherme Cachoeira

CSA substitutes

12Paulo13Islan14Ramon15Kevyn16Silas17Danilinho18Baianinho20Alvaro9Marques21Klenisson

Serie C: ABC 1–1 CSA

ABC and CSA drew 1-1 in Serie C on April 21, 2025.

Goals: Silas (90'), Adeilson Maranhao (90').

The match was played at Estadio Maria Lamas Farache in Natal.

ABC vs CSA — Serie C 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Serie C: ABC 1–1 CSA