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ABC vs CRB — Serie B 2026

ABC
ABC
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
CRB
CRB
8/19/2023Serie BSerie B · Round 24Estádio Maria Lamas Farache

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

ABC37%
×Draw30%
CRB34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ABC
1.10
CRB
1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 161 away

creates per match

ABC
0.79
CRB
0.92

allows per match

ABC
1.16
CRB
1.42

finishing

ABC+0.00on par
CRB+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ABC ↓

CRB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

ABC or draw
66%
ABC or CRB
70%
Draw or CRB
63%

Winning margin

ABC wins by 2+
15%
CRB wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

ABC 1+ goals
67%
ABC 2+ goals
30%
ABC 3+ goals
10%
CRB 1+ goals
65%
CRB 2+ goals
28%
CRB 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

ABC (draw refunded)
52%
CRB (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ABC at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

CRB away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.42 · 161 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ABC attack 0.79 + CRB defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.10

CRB attack 0.92 + ABC defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

ABC scores more
37%
level
30%
CRB scores more
34%

ABC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "ABC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

ABC 1 – 2 CRB

CRB beat ABC 2-1 in Serie B on August 19, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Maria Lamas Farache in Natal, Rio Grande do Norte.