ABC 1–1 Chapecoense-sc: Result & Stats | Serie B

ABC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Chapecoense-sc

Thonny Anderson 59' (pen)

Alisson Farias 89'

6/10/2023

Serie B · Round 12Estádio Maria Lamas Farache

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

ABC30%

×Draw32%

Chapecoense-sc38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ABCExpected goals in this matchChapecoense-sc

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.85

1.01

ABC

0.85

Chapecoense-sc

1.01

Chapecoense-sc creates 19% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 95 away

0.70

creates per match

0.89

1.13

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

ABC

0.70

Chapecoense-sc

0.89

allows per match

ABC

1.13

Chapecoense-sc

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ABC+0.00on par

Chapecoense-sc+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ABC ↓

Chapecoense-sc →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–116%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

ABC or draw

62%

ABC or Chapecoense-sc

68%

Draw or Chapecoense-sc

70%

Winning margin

ABC wins by 2+

10%

Chapecoense-sc wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

ABC 1+ goals

57%

ABC 2+ goals

21%

ABC 3+ goals

5%

Chapecoense-sc 1+ goals

64%

Chapecoense-sc 2+ goals

27%

Chapecoense-sc 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

ABC (draw refunded)

44%

Chapecoense-sc (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ABC at home — creates 0.70, concedes 1.13 · 23 matches

Chapecoense-sc away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.00 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ABC attack 0.70 + Chapecoense-sc defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.85

Chapecoense-sc attack 0.89 + ABC defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

ABC scores more

30%

level

32%

Chapecoense-sc scores more

38%

Chapecoense-sc at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Chapecoense-sc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Alisson Farias

Chapecoense-sc · F

7.6

Match Events

25'

Luccas Romário← Jhonnathan

34'

Pablo Siles

46'

Welliton← Felipe Garcia

46'

Bruno Lima← Maycon Douglas

46'

Dudu Vieira← P. Siles

47'

Felipe Ferreira

59'

Thonny Anderson

59'

Thonny AndersonPenalty

66'

Wellington Reis← Wallace

66'

Lucas Alves← Felipe Ferreira

72'

Gustavo Hebling← Fábio Lima

75'

Maxwell← Richard Rodrigues

75'

Giovanni Pavani← Gustavo Cazonatti

79'

Ramon Vinicius

84'

Neto← Ronei

89'

Alisson Farias↳ João Paulo

90+8'

Mancha

90+4'

Bruno Vinicius

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ABCChapecoense-sc

Overview

42%Possession58%

12Total Shots11

4Corners2

10Fouls17

Shots

12Total Shots11

2On Target3

6Off Target6

4Blocked2

6Inside Box3

6Outside Box8

Passing

42%Possession58%

385Total Passes534

297Accurate Passes435

77%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls17

2Yellow Cards4

1Offsides1