ABC 3–0 Brasil DE Pelotas: Result & Stats | Serie C

ABC

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Brasil DE Pelotas

Walfrido 70'

Gustavo França 50'

Henan 16'

5/28/2022

Serie C · Round 8Estádio Maria Lamas Farache

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

ABC58%

×Draw23%

Brasil DE Pelotas19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ABCExpected goals in this matchBrasil DE Pelotas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

0.92

ABC

1.79

Brasil DE Pelotas

0.92

ABC creates 95% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 9 away

1.35

creates per match

0.78

1.06

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

ABC

1.35

Brasil DE Pelotas

0.78

allows per match

ABC

1.06

Brasil DE Pelotas

2.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ABC+0.00on par

Brasil DE Pelotas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ABC ↓

Brasil DE Pelotas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

ABC or draw

81%

ABC or Brasil DE Pelotas

77%

Draw or Brasil DE Pelotas

42%

Winning margin

ABC wins by 2+

33%

Brasil DE Pelotas wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

ABC 1+ goals

83%

ABC 2+ goals

53%

ABC 3+ goals

26%

Brasil DE Pelotas 1+ goals

60%

Brasil DE Pelotas 2+ goals

23%

Brasil DE Pelotas 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

ABC (draw refunded)

75%

Brasil DE Pelotas (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ABC at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.06 · 52 matches

Brasil DE Pelotas away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ABC attack 1.35 + Brasil DE Pelotas defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.79

Brasil DE Pelotas attack 0.78 + ABC defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

ABC scores more

58%

level

23%

Brasil DE Pelotas scores more

19%

ABC at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "ABC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

16'

23'

30'

35'

46'

Paulo Victor← Marllon

50'

Gustavo França

59'

Helerson← Rômulo

59'

Rafael Carvalheira← Jonatha

70'

Walfrido

76'

Guilherme Nunes← Walfrido

76'

Jefinho← Henan

78'

Herisson← Luiz Meneses

78'

Victor Cesar← Júnior Pirambu

80'

Geovani← Gustavo França

82'

Guilherme Nunes

90+1'

Guilherme Dantas← Fábio Lima

ABC

Brasil

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Walfrido

▼

Lima

⚽

▼

Henan

⚽

▼

França

Kelvin

Manager: Fernando Marchiori

76'▲Guilherme Nunes←▼Walfrido

76'▲Jefinho←▼Henan

80'▲Geovani←▼Gustavo França

90+1'▲Guilherme Dantas←▼Fábio Lima

ABC substitutes

NunesJefinhoGeovaniDantasNogueiraEduardoCabelinhoMarquinhosThallysonThalys

Manager: Jerson Testoni

46'▲Paulo Victor←▼Marllon

59'▲Helerson←▼Rômulo

59'▲Rafael Carvalheira←▼Jonatha

78'▲Herisson←▼Luiz Meneses

78'▲Victor Cesar←▼Júnior Pirambu

Brasil DE Pelotas substitutes

VictorHelersonCarvalheiraHerissonCesarFernandinhoFerrazPassosLucasBrasil

Serie C: ABC 3–0 Brasil DE Pelotas

ABC beat Brasil DE Pelotas 3-0 in Serie C on May 28, 2022.

Goals: Henan (16'), Gustavo França (50'), Walfrido (70').

The match was played at Estádio Maria Lamas Farache in Natal, Rio Grande do Norte.

ABC vs Brasil DE Pelotas — Serie C 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Serie C: ABC 3–0 Brasil DE Pelotas