ABC 1–2 Botafogo SP: Result & Stats | Serie B

ABC

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Botafogo SP

Maycon Douglas 10'

Robinho 35'

Tárik 21'

5/14/2023

Serie B · Round 6Estádio Maria Lamas Farache

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

ABC38%

×Draw31%

Botafogo SP31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ABCExpected goals in this matchBotafogo SP

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

0.94

ABC

1.06

Botafogo SP

0.94

ABC creates 13% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 87 away

0.70

creates per match

0.75

1.13

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

ABC

0.70

Botafogo SP

0.75

allows per match

ABC

1.13

Botafogo SP

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ABC+0.00on par

Botafogo SP+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ABC ↓

Botafogo SP →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

ABC or draw

69%

ABC or Botafogo SP

69%

Draw or Botafogo SP

62%

Winning margin

ABC wins by 2+

15%

Botafogo SP wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

ABC 1+ goals

65%

ABC 2+ goals

29%

ABC 3+ goals

9%

Botafogo SP 1+ goals

61%

Botafogo SP 2+ goals

24%

Botafogo SP 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

ABC (draw refunded)

55%

Botafogo SP (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ABC at home — creates 0.70, concedes 1.13 · 23 matches

Botafogo SP away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.43 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ABC attack 0.70 + Botafogo SP defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.06

Botafogo SP attack 0.75 + ABC defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

ABC scores more

38%

level

31%

Botafogo SP scores more

31%

ABC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "ABC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Fábio Lima

ABC · F

8.0

Match Events

10'

Maycon Douglas↳ Fábio Lima

21'

Tárik

25'

Thallyson

35'

Robinho↳ Lucas Cardoso

45+6'

Felipe Garcia

45+6'

Carlos Manuel

46'

Lucas Tocantins← Maycon Douglas

46'

Welliton← Ramon

46'

Gustavo Hebling← Thallyson

63'

Gedeílson← Alemão

63'

Thonny Anderson← Fábio Lima

67'

Luiz Henrique← Robinho

76'

Patrick Brey← Jean Victor

82'

Thassio← Lucas Cardoso

82'

João Veras← Salatiel

82'

Edson← Tárik

88'

Edson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ABCBotafogo

Overview

68%Possession32%

16Total Shots12

10Corners4

11Fouls15

Shots

16Total Shots12

4On Target5

7Off Target6

5Blocked1

9Inside Box4

7Outside Box8

Passing

68%Possession32%

517Total Passes248

432Accurate Passes170

84%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls15

2Yellow Cards2