ABC 3–3 Anápolis: Result & Stats | Serie C

ABC

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Anápolis

Joaozinho 90'

Carlos Eduardo 39'

Anderson Rosa 28'

Kadu 62', 45'

Octavio 47' (OG)

5/19/2025

Serie C · Round 6Arena das Dunas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

ABC50%

×Draw27%

Anápolis24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ABCExpected goals in this matchAnápolis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.92

ABC

1.46

Anápolis

0.92

ABC creates 59% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 18 away

1.35

creates per match

0.78

1.06

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

ABC

1.35

Anápolis

0.78

allows per match

ABC

1.06

Anápolis

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ABC+0.00on par

Anápolis+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ABC ↓

Anápolis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

ABC or draw

76%

ABC or Anápolis

73%

Draw or Anápolis

50%

Winning margin

ABC wins by 2+

25%

Anápolis wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

ABC 1+ goals

77%

ABC 2+ goals

43%

ABC 3+ goals

18%

Anápolis 1+ goals

60%

Anápolis 2+ goals

23%

Anápolis 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

ABC (draw refunded)

68%

Anápolis (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ABC at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.06 · 52 matches

Anápolis away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ABC attack 1.35 + Anápolis defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.46

Anápolis attack 0.78 + ABC defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

ABC scores more

50%

level

27%

Anápolis scores more

24%

ABC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "ABC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

28'

39'

40'

43'

45'

46'

Lucas Goncalves← Anderson Rosa

47'

OctavioOwn goal

48'

53'

57'

57'

62'

64'

Jonatha Carlos← Wallyson

64'

Orlando Junior← Matheus Martins

64'

Joaozinho← Bruno Leite

66'

Ferrugem← Denner

66'

K. Souza← Igor Cassio

70'

74'

76'

80'

89'

90'

ABC

Anápolis

1

Henrique

30

Lucao

2

Fabio

23

▼

Caxambu

15

Thomaz

14

Andre

57

▼

Rafinha

10

▼

Denner

21

⚽2

Kadu

29

▼

Cassio

6

Verrone

1

Garcia

2

▼

Mota

6

Sampaio

21

Ian

13

🥅

Octavio

10

⚽

▼

Rosa

17

▼

Leite

8

Maranhao

30

▼

Wallyson

18

⚽

Eduardo

7

▼

Martins

Manager: Evaristo Piza

46'▲Lucas Goncalves←▼Anderson Rosa

64'▲Jonatha Carlos←▼Wallyson

64'▲Orlando Junior←▼Matheus Martins

64'▲Joaozinho←▼Bruno Leite

74'▲Juninho←▼Lucas Mota

ABC substitutes

12Paulo3Wendel23Ezequiel26Rocha16Manoel5Goncalves27Oziel25Juninho20Carlos28Islan29Junior9Joaozinho

Manager: Ângelo Luiz

66'▲Ferrugem←▼Denner

66'▲K. Souza←▼Igor Cassio

70'▲Natan Bahia←▼Caxambu

76'▲Joao Borim←▼Rafinha

Anápolis substitutes

53Gabriel4Oliveira11Bahia32Mineiro33Cocao38Ferrugem41Borim77Cardoso90Souza

ABC 3 – 3 Anápolis

ABC and Anápolis drew 3-3 in Serie C on May 19, 2025.

Goals: Anderson Rosa (28'), Carlos Eduardo (39'), Kadu (45', 62'), Octavio (47' o.g.), Joaozinho (90').

The match was played at Arena das Dunas in Natal.

ABC vs Anápolis — Serie C 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

ABC 3 – 3 Anápolis