Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Abahani vs Sheikh Russel — Federation Cup 2020

Abahani
Abahaniadvanced
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sheikh Russel
Sheikh Russel
5/16/2023Federation CupFederation Cup · Semi-finalComilla Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Abahani68%
×Draw19%
Sheikh Russel13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Abahani
2.13
Sheikh Russel
0.78

Abahani creates 173% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 6 away

creates per match

Abahani
2.27
Sheikh Russel
1.17

allows per match

Abahani
0.40
Sheikh Russel
2.00

finishing

Abahani+0.00on par
Sheikh Russel+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abahani ↓

Sheikh Russel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Abahani or draw
87%
Abahani or Sheikh Russel
81%
Draw or Sheikh Russel
32%

Winning margin

Abahani wins by 2+
44%
Sheikh Russel wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Abahani 1+ goals
88%
Abahani 2+ goals
63%
Abahani 3+ goals
35%
Sheikh Russel 1+ goals
54%
Sheikh Russel 2+ goals
18%
Sheikh Russel 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Abahani (draw refunded)
84%
Sheikh Russel (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abahani at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.40 · 15 matches

Sheikh Russel away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abahani attack 2.27 + Sheikh Russel defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.13

Sheikh Russel attack 1.17 + Abahani defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Abahani scores more
68%
level
19%
Sheikh Russel scores more
13%

Abahani at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Abahani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Federation Cup: Abahani 3–0 Sheikh Russel

Abahani beat Sheikh Russel 3-0 in Federation Cup on May 16, 2023.

The match was played at Comilla Stadium in Comilla.