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Abahani vs Sheikh Jamal — Premier League 2019

Abahani
Abahani
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Sheikh Jamal
Sheikh Jamal
4/19/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12Sheikh Fazlul Haque Mani Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Abahani53%
×Draw23%
Sheikh Jamal24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Abahani
1.86
Sheikh Jamal
1.18

Abahani creates 58% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 56 away

creates per match

Abahani
2.35
Sheikh Jamal
1.45

allows per match

Abahani
0.90
Sheikh Jamal
1.38

finishing

Abahani+0.00on par
Sheikh Jamal+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abahani ↓

Sheikh Jamal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Abahani or draw
76%
Abahani or Sheikh Jamal
77%
Draw or Sheikh Jamal
47%

Winning margin

Abahani wins by 2+
30%
Sheikh Jamal wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Abahani 1+ goals
84%
Abahani 2+ goals
55%
Abahani 3+ goals
28%
Sheikh Jamal 1+ goals
69%
Sheikh Jamal 2+ goals
33%
Sheikh Jamal 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Abahani (draw refunded)
69%
Sheikh Jamal (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abahani at home — creates 2.35, concedes 0.90 · 77 matches

Sheikh Jamal away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.38 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abahani attack 2.35 + Sheikh Jamal defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.86

Sheikh Jamal attack 1.45 + Abahani defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Abahani scores more
53%
level
23%
Sheikh Jamal scores more
24%

Abahani at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Abahani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Abahani vs Sheikh Jamal

Abahani beat Sheikh Jamal 2-1 in Premier League on April 19, 2024.

The match was played at Sheikh Fazlul Haque Mani Stadium in Gopalganj.