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Abahani vs Fortis — Premier League 2019

Abahani
Abahani
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Fortis
Fortis
5/17/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 15Comilla Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Abahani51%
×Draw23%
Fortis25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Abahani
1.77
Fortis
1.18

Abahani creates 50% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 37 away

creates per match

Abahani
2.35
Fortis
1.46

allows per match

Abahani
0.90
Fortis
1.19

finishing

Abahani+0.00on par
Fortis+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abahani ↓

Fortis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Abahani or draw
75%
Abahani or Fortis
77%
Draw or Fortis
49%

Winning margin

Abahani wins by 2+
28%
Fortis wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Abahani 1+ goals
83%
Abahani 2+ goals
53%
Abahani 3+ goals
26%
Fortis 1+ goals
69%
Fortis 2+ goals
33%
Fortis 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Abahani (draw refunded)
67%
Fortis (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abahani at home — creates 2.35, concedes 0.90 · 77 matches

Fortis away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.19 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abahani attack 2.35 + Fortis defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.77

Fortis attack 1.46 + Abahani defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Abahani scores more
51%
level
23%
Fortis scores more
25%

Abahani at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Abahani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Abahani 1–2 Fortis

Fortis beat Abahani 2-1 in Premier League on May 17, 2025.

The match was played at Comilla Stadium in Comilla.