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Abahani vs Bashundhara Kings — Premier League 2019

Abahani
Abahani
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bashundhara Kings
Bashundhara Kings
12/20/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 4Comilla Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Abahani37%
×Draw24%
Bashundhara Kings39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Abahani
1.52
Bashundhara Kings
1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 76 away

creates per match

Abahani
2.35
Bashundhara Kings
2.24

allows per match

Abahani
0.90
Bashundhara Kings
0.70

finishing

Abahani+0.00on par
Bashundhara Kings+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abahani ↓

Bashundhara Kings →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Abahani or draw
61%
Abahani or Bashundhara Kings
76%
Draw or Bashundhara Kings
63%

Winning margin

Abahani wins by 2+
18%
Bashundhara Kings wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Abahani 1+ goals
78%
Abahani 2+ goals
45%
Abahani 3+ goals
20%
Bashundhara Kings 1+ goals
79%
Bashundhara Kings 2+ goals
46%
Bashundhara Kings 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Abahani (draw refunded)
49%
Bashundhara Kings (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abahani at home — creates 2.35, concedes 0.90 · 77 matches

Bashundhara Kings away — creates 2.24, concedes 0.70 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abahani attack 2.35 + Bashundhara Kings defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.52

Bashundhara Kings attack 2.24 + Abahani defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Abahani scores more
37%
level
24%
Bashundhara Kings scores more
39%

Bashundhara Kings at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bashundhara Kings will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Abahani 1–0 Bashundhara Kings

Abahani beat Bashundhara Kings 1-0 in Premier League on December 20, 2024.

The match was played at Comilla Stadium in Comilla.