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AB vs Undrid — Løgmanssteypid 2019

AB
AB
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Undrid
Undrid
7/8/2020LøgmanssteypidLøgmanssteypid · 8th Finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

AB47%
×Draw22%
Undrid31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AB
2.00
Undrid
1.60

AB creates 25% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

AB
1.60
Undrid
2.20

allows per match

AB
1.00
Undrid
2.40

finishing

AB+0.00on par
Undrid+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AB ↓

Undrid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

AB or draw
69%
AB or Undrid
78%
Draw or Undrid
53%

Winning margin

AB wins by 2+
27%
Undrid wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

AB 1+ goals
86%
AB 2+ goals
59%
AB 3+ goals
32%
Undrid 1+ goals
80%
Undrid 2+ goals
47%
Undrid 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

AB (draw refunded)
60%
Undrid (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AB at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Undrid away — creates 2.20, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AB attack 1.60 + Undrid defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.00

Undrid attack 2.20 + AB defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

AB scores more
47%
level
22%
Undrid scores more
31%

AB at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "AB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AB 4 – 1 Undrid

AB beat Undrid 4-1 in Løgmanssteypid on July 8, 2020.