AB Copenhagen 1–1 VSK Århus: Result & Stats

AB Copenhagen

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

VSK Århus

4/6/2026

2nd Division - Group 1 · Round 22Gladsaxe Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

AB Copenhagen45%

×Draw25%

VSK Århus30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AB CopenhagenExpected goals in this matchVSK Århus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.20

AB Copenhagen

1.55

VSK Århus

1.20

AB Copenhagen creates 29% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 29 away

2.01

creates per match

1.14

1.26

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

AB Copenhagen

2.01

VSK Århus

1.14

allows per match

AB Copenhagen

1.26

VSK Århus

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AB Copenhagen+0.00on par

VSK Århus+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AB Copenhagen ↓

VSK Århus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

AB Copenhagen or draw

70%

AB Copenhagen or VSK Århus

75%

Draw or VSK Århus

55%

Winning margin

AB Copenhagen wins by 2+

23%

VSK Århus wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

AB Copenhagen 1+ goals

79%

AB Copenhagen 2+ goals

46%

AB Copenhagen 3+ goals

20%

VSK Århus 1+ goals

70%

VSK Århus 2+ goals

34%

VSK Århus 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

AB Copenhagen (draw refunded)

61%

VSK Århus (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AB Copenhagen at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.26 · 74 matches

VSK Århus away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.10 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AB Copenhagen attack 2.01 + VSK Århus defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.55

VSK Århus attack 1.14 + AB Copenhagen defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

AB Copenhagen scores more

45%

level

25%

VSK Århus scores more

30%

AB Copenhagen at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "AB Copenhagen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff