AB Copenhagen 3–2 Hillerød: Result & Stats

AB Copenhagen

FT

3 – 2

Hillerød

7/15/2023

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Akademisk Boldklub

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

AB Copenhagen50%

×Draw21%

Hillerød28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AB CopenhagenExpected goals in this matchHillerød

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.52

AB Copenhagen

2.08

Hillerød

1.52

AB Copenhagen creates 37% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 15 away

2.43

creates per match

1.47

1.57

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

AB Copenhagen

2.43

Hillerød

1.47

allows per match

AB Copenhagen

1.57

Hillerød

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AB Copenhagen+0.00on par

Hillerød+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AB Copenhagen ↓

Hillerød →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

AB Copenhagen or draw

72%

AB Copenhagen or Hillerød

79%

Draw or Hillerød

50%

Winning margin

AB Copenhagen wins by 2+

29%

Hillerød wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

AB Copenhagen 1+ goals

87%

AB Copenhagen 2+ goals

61%

AB Copenhagen 3+ goals

34%

Hillerød 1+ goals

78%

Hillerød 2+ goals

45%

Hillerød 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

AB Copenhagen (draw refunded)

64%

Hillerød (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AB Copenhagen at home — creates 2.43, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Hillerød away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AB Copenhagen attack 2.43 + Hillerød defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 2.08

Hillerød attack 1.47 + AB Copenhagen defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

AB Copenhagen scores more

50%

level

21%

Hillerød scores more

28%

AB Copenhagen at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "AB Copenhagen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff