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Aarhus vs Lyngby — Superliga 2018

Aarhus
Aarhus
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Lyngby
Lyngby
P. Mortensen 90+5'
P. Gregor 34' (OG)
F. Gytkjær 88'
11/3/2024SuperligaSuperliga · Round 14Ceres Park & Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Aarhus54%
×Draw23%
Lyngby23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aarhus
1.87
Lyngby
1.15

Aarhus creates 63% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 6 away

creates per match

Aarhus
2.15
Lyngby
1.16

allows per match

Aarhus
1.14
Lyngby
1.59

finishing

Aarhus-0.09on par
Lyngby-0.49scores less

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aarhus ↓

Lyngby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Aarhus or draw
77%
Aarhus or Lyngby
77%
Draw or Lyngby
46%

Winning margin

Aarhus wins by 2+
31%
Lyngby wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Aarhus 1+ goals
85%
Aarhus 2+ goals
56%
Aarhus 3+ goals
29%
Lyngby 1+ goals
68%
Lyngby 2+ goals
32%
Lyngby 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Aarhus (draw refunded)
70%
Lyngby (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aarhus at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.14 · 18 matches

Lyngby away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.59 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aarhus attack 2.15 + Lyngby defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.87

Lyngby attack 1.16 + Aarhus defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Aarhus scores more
54%
level
23%
Lyngby scores more
23%

Aarhus at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Aarhus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32
J. StorchLyngbyLyngby · G
8.5

Match Events

24'
Sævar Atli Magnússon
29'
Marcel Rømer
32'
Magnus Jensen
34'
P. GregorOwn goal
58'
C. Winther← M. Rømer
58'
M. Hebo← L. Sandgrav
60'
K. Arnstad← G. Links
68'
M. Warming← W. Kumado
78'
J. Andersen← E. Kahl
82'
M. Opoku← J. Amon
82'
F. Gytkjær← S. Magnússon
88'
F. Gytkjær↳ J. Storch
90+1'
Jacob Andersen
90+5'
Jannich Storch
90+5'
Leon Klassen
90+1'
Malik Abubakari
90'
Leon Klassen
90+5'
Leon Klassen
90+3'
M. Duelund← N. Poulsen
90+5'
P. Mortensen↳ J. Andersen

Possession

62%Aarhus

Shots

18Aarhus

Pass accuracy

53%Aarhus

Statistics

AarhusLyngby
Overview
62%Possession38%
18Total Shots6
1.77Expected Goals (xG)0.71
7Corners3
10Fouls18
Shots
18Total Shots6
8On Target3
8Off Target0
2Blocked3
11Inside Box3
7Outside Box3
Passing
62%Possession38%
577Total Passes357
482Accurate Passes263
84%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
2Saves7
Discipline
10Fouls18
1Yellow Cards7
0Red Cards1
2Offsides0

Aarhus 2 – 1 Lyngby

Aarhus beat Lyngby 2-1 in Superliga on November 3, 2024.

Goals: P. Gregor (34' o.g.), F. Gytkjær (88'), P. Mortensen (90+5').

Aarhus controlled possession (62%) and registered 18 shots to 6.

The match was played at Ceres Park & Arena in Århus.