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Aarhus vs Diosgyori VTK — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Aarhus
Aarhus
FT
3 – 3
Diosgyori VTK
Diosgyori VTK
1/15/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Banús Football Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Aarhus52%
×Draw21%
Diosgyori VTK27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aarhus
2.10
Diosgyori VTK
1.48

Aarhus creates 42% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 9 away

creates per match

Aarhus
2.42
Diosgyori VTK
1.89

allows per match

Aarhus
1.08
Diosgyori VTK
1.78

finishing

Aarhus+0.00on par
Diosgyori VTK+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aarhus ↓

Diosgyori VTK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Aarhus or draw
73%
Aarhus or Diosgyori VTK
79%
Draw or Diosgyori VTK
48%

Winning margin

Aarhus wins by 2+
30%
Diosgyori VTK wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Aarhus 1+ goals
88%
Aarhus 2+ goals
62%
Aarhus 3+ goals
35%
Diosgyori VTK 1+ goals
77%
Diosgyori VTK 2+ goals
43%
Diosgyori VTK 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Aarhus (draw refunded)
66%
Diosgyori VTK (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aarhus at home — creates 2.42, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

Diosgyori VTK away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aarhus attack 2.42 + Diosgyori VTK defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 2.10

Diosgyori VTK attack 1.89 + Aarhus defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Aarhus scores more
52%
level
21%
Diosgyori VTK scores more
27%

Aarhus at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Aarhus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aarhus vs Diosgyori VTK

Aarhus and Diosgyori VTK drew 3-3 in Friendlies Clubs on January 15, 2024.

The match was played at Banús Football Center in Marbella.