Aarhus Fremad 4–0 Tarup-Paarup: Result & Stats

Aarhus Fremad

FT

4 – 0

Tarup-Paarup

8/18/2018

2nd Division - Group 1 · Round 3Riisvangen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Aarhus Fremad61%

×Draw23%

Tarup-Paarup16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aarhus FremadExpected goals in this matchTarup-Paarup

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.76

Aarhus Fremad

1.77

Tarup-Paarup

0.76

Aarhus Fremad creates 133% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 7 away

1.98

creates per match

0.43

1.09

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Aarhus Fremad

1.98

Tarup-Paarup

0.43

allows per match

Aarhus Fremad

1.09

Tarup-Paarup

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aarhus Fremad+0.00on par

Tarup-Paarup+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aarhus Fremad ↓

Tarup-Paarup →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Aarhus Fremad or draw

84%

Aarhus Fremad or Tarup-Paarup

77%

Draw or Tarup-Paarup

39%

Winning margin

Aarhus Fremad wins by 2+

35%

Tarup-Paarup wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Aarhus Fremad 1+ goals

83%

Aarhus Fremad 2+ goals

53%

Aarhus Fremad 3+ goals

26%

Tarup-Paarup 1+ goals

53%

Tarup-Paarup 2+ goals

18%

Tarup-Paarup 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Aarhus Fremad (draw refunded)

80%

Tarup-Paarup (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aarhus Fremad at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.09 · 80 matches

Tarup-Paarup away — creates 0.43, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aarhus Fremad attack 1.98 + Tarup-Paarup defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.77

Tarup-Paarup attack 0.43 + Aarhus Fremad defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Aarhus Fremad scores more

61%

level

23%

Tarup-Paarup scores more

16%

Aarhus Fremad at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Aarhus Fremad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff