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Aarau W vs Servette Chênois W — AXA Women’s Super League 2020

Aarau W
Aarau W
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Servette Chênois W
Servette Chênois Wadvanced
4/25/2026AXA Women’s Super LeagueAXA Women’s Super League · Quarter-finalsStade de la Fontenette

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Aarau W12%
×Draw19%
Servette Chênois W68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aarau W
0.76
Servette Chênois W
2.10

Servette Chênois W creates 176% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 70 away

creates per match

Aarau W
0.96
Servette Chênois W
2.24

allows per match

Aarau W
1.95
Servette Chênois W
0.57

finishing

Aarau W+0.00on par
Servette Chênois W+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aarau W ↓

Servette Chênois W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–112%
0–213%
0–39%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–13%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Aarau W or draw
32%
Aarau W or Servette Chênois W
81%
Draw or Servette Chênois W
88%

Winning margin

Aarau W wins by 2+
3%
Servette Chênois W wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Aarau W 1+ goals
53%
Aarau W 2+ goals
18%
Aarau W 3+ goals
4%
Servette Chênois W 1+ goals
88%
Servette Chênois W 2+ goals
62%
Servette Chênois W 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Aarau W (draw refunded)
15%
Servette Chênois W (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aarau W at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.95 · 55 matches

Servette Chênois W away — creates 2.24, concedes 0.57 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aarau W attack 0.96 + Servette Chênois W defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.76

Servette Chênois W attack 2.24 + Aarau W defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Aarau W scores more
12%
level
19%
Servette Chênois W scores more
68%

Servette Chênois W at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Servette Chênois W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AXA Women’s Super League: Aarau W 1–2 Servette Chênois W

Servette Chênois W beat Aarau W 2-1 in AXA Women’s Super League on April 25, 2026.

The match was played at Stade de la Fontenette in Aarau.