Aarau W 1–3 Grasshopper W: Result & Stats

Aarau W

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Grasshopper W

A. Klingenstein 64'

J. Egli 88'

E. Pfister 71', 28'

11/2/2024

AXA Women’s Super League · Round 10Sportanlage Schachen - Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Aarau W23%

×Draw21%

Grasshopper W57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aarau WExpected goals in this matchGrasshopper W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

2.15

Aarau W

1.29

Grasshopper W

2.15

Grasshopper W creates 67% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 68 away

0.96

creates per match

2.35

1.95

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Aarau W

0.96

Grasshopper W

2.35

allows per match

Aarau W

1.95

Grasshopper W

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aarau W+0.00on par

Grasshopper W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aarau W ↓

Grasshopper W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Aarau W or draw

43%

Aarau W or Grasshopper W

79%

Draw or Grasshopper W

77%

Winning margin

Aarau W wins by 2+

9%

Grasshopper W wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Aarau W 1+ goals

72%

Aarau W 2+ goals

37%

Aarau W 3+ goals

14%

Grasshopper W 1+ goals

88%

Grasshopper W 2+ goals

63%

Grasshopper W 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Aarau W (draw refunded)

28%

Grasshopper W (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aarau W at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.95 · 55 matches

Grasshopper W away — creates 2.35, concedes 1.62 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aarau W attack 0.96 + Grasshopper W defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.29

Grasshopper W attack 2.35 + Aarau W defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Aarau W scores more

23%

level

21%

Grasshopper W scores more

57%

Grasshopper W at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Grasshopper W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

E. Pfister

51'

M. Muller

56'

M. Storni← P. Mikulića

64'

A. Klingenstein

68'

C. Manca← J. Steck

68'

Rita Almeida← V. Hoti

71'

73'

76'

76'

79'

B. Ásgeirsdóttir← A. Klingenstein

79'

D. Deda← V. Cortello

88'

Rita Almeida

88'

N. Predanič← N. Potier

88'

J. Ruf← J. Egli

88'

J. Egli

Aarau

Grasshopper

1

32

13

27

4

14

▼

Mikulića

15

Ivelj

24

Looser

23

▼

Potier

20

⚽

▼

Egli

16

⚽2

▼

1

5

13

12

▼

Cortello

18

Pfannschm

8

▼

27

7

11

24

⚽

▼

Klingenst

17

▼

Steck

Manager: O. Häusermann

68'▲C. Manca←▼J. Steck

68'▲Rita Almeida←▼V. Hoti

79'▲B. Ásgeirsdóttir←▼A. Klingenstein

79'▲D. Deda←▼V. Cortello

Aarau W substitutes

9Manca28Almeida6Ásgeirsdóttir14Deda20Truninger21Doulis22Stierli

Manager: G. Gallai

56'▲M. Storni←▼P. Mikulića

73'▲G. Ess←▼E. Pfister

88'▲N. Predanič←▼N. Potier

88'▲J. Ruf←▼J. Egli

Grasshopper W substitutes

49Storni9Ess28Predanič47Ruf18Bürki52Hafizovic

Match Recap: Aarau W vs Grasshopper W

Grasshopper W beat Aarau W 3-1 in AXA Women’s Super League on November 2, 2024.

Goals: E. Pfister (28', 71'), A. Klingenstein (64'), J. Egli (88').

The match was played at Sportanlage Schachen - Kunstrasenplatz in Aarau.

Aarau W vs Grasshopper W — AXA Women’s Super League 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Aarau W vs Grasshopper W