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Aalesunds U19 vs Rosenborg U19 — Nasjonal U19 Champions League 2021

Aalesunds U19
Aalesunds U19
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Rosenborg U19
Rosenborg U19
1/27/2024Nasjonal U19 Champions LeagueNasjonal U19 Champions League · Group Stage - 1Color Line Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Aalesunds U1943%
×Draw20%
Rosenborg U1937%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aalesunds U19
2.23
Rosenborg U19
2.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 21 away

creates per match

Aalesunds U19
1.65
Rosenborg U19
2.10

allows per match

Aalesunds U19
2.00
Rosenborg U19
2.81

finishing

Aalesunds U19+0.00on par
Rosenborg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aalesunds U19 ↓

Rosenborg U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Aalesunds U19 or draw
63%
Aalesunds U19 or Rosenborg U19
80%
Draw or Rosenborg U19
57%

Winning margin

Aalesunds U19 wins by 2+
25%
Rosenborg U19 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Aalesunds U19 1+ goals
89%
Aalesunds U19 2+ goals
65%
Aalesunds U19 3+ goals
38%
Rosenborg U19 1+ goals
87%
Rosenborg U19 2+ goals
61%
Rosenborg U19 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Aalesunds U19 (draw refunded)
54%
Rosenborg U19 (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aalesunds U19 at home — creates 1.65, concedes 2.00 · 20 matches

Rosenborg U19 away — creates 2.10, concedes 2.81 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aalesunds U19 attack 1.65 + Rosenborg U19 defence 2.81 → ÷2 → 2.23

Rosenborg U19 attack 2.10 + Aalesunds U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Aalesunds U19 scores more
43%
level
20%
Rosenborg U19 scores more
37%

Aalesunds U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Aalesunds U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aalesunds U19 vs Rosenborg U19

Aalesunds U19 and Rosenborg U19 drew 2-2 in Nasjonal U19 Champions League on January 27, 2024.

The match was played at Color Line Stadion in Ålesund.