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Aalesunds U19 vs Molde U19 — Nasjonal U19 Champions League 2021

Aalesunds U19
Aalesunds U19
FT
1 – 6
HT: 0 – 3
Molde U19
Molde U19
3/13/2024Nasjonal U19 Champions LeagueNasjonal U19 Champions League · Group Stage - 5Color Line Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Aalesunds U1934%
×Draw20%
Molde U1945%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aalesunds U19
1.94
Molde U19
2.24

Molde U19 creates 15% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 23 away

creates per match

Aalesunds U19
1.65
Molde U19
2.48

allows per match

Aalesunds U19
2.00
Molde U19
2.22

finishing

Aalesunds U19+0.00on par
Molde U19+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aalesunds U19 ↓

Molde U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Aalesunds U19 or draw
55%
Aalesunds U19 or Molde U19
80%
Draw or Molde U19
66%

Winning margin

Aalesunds U19 wins by 2+
18%
Molde U19 wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Aalesunds U19 1+ goals
86%
Aalesunds U19 2+ goals
58%
Aalesunds U19 3+ goals
30%
Molde U19 1+ goals
89%
Molde U19 2+ goals
65%
Molde U19 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Aalesunds U19 (draw refunded)
43%
Molde U19 (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aalesunds U19 at home — creates 1.65, concedes 2.00 · 20 matches

Molde U19 away — creates 2.48, concedes 2.22 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aalesunds U19 attack 1.65 + Molde U19 defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.94

Molde U19 attack 2.48 + Aalesunds U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Aalesunds U19 scores more
34%
level
20%
Molde U19 scores more
45%

Molde U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Molde U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aalesunds U19 vs Molde U19

Molde U19 beat Aalesunds U19 6-1 in Nasjonal U19 Champions League on March 13, 2024.

The match was played at Color Line Stadion in Ålesund.