Aalesund 3–1 Sogndal: Result & Stats | 1. Division

Aalesund

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sogndal

H. Guèye 90+4', 55'

H. Fridjonsson 48' (pen)

U. Fredriksen 51'

11/29/2018

1. Division · Promotion Play-offs - FinalColor Line Stadion (Ålesund)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Aalesund52%

×Draw23%

Sogndal25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AalesundExpected goals in this matchSogndal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.25

Aalesund

1.88

Sogndal

1.25

Aalesund creates 50% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 114 away

2.18

creates per match

1.33

1.18

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Aalesund

2.18

Sogndal

1.33

allows per match

Aalesund

1.18

Sogndal

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aalesund+0.00on par

Sogndal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aalesund ↓

Sogndal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Aalesund or draw

75%

Aalesund or Sogndal

77%

Draw or Sogndal

48%

Winning margin

Aalesund wins by 2+

29%

Sogndal wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Aalesund 1+ goals

85%

Aalesund 2+ goals

56%

Aalesund 3+ goals

29%

Sogndal 1+ goals

71%

Sogndal 2+ goals

36%

Sogndal 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Aalesund (draw refunded)

67%

Sogndal (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aalesund at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.18 · 62 matches

Sogndal away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.58 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aalesund attack 2.18 + Sogndal defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.88

Sogndal attack 1.33 + Aalesund defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Aalesund scores more

52%

level

23%

Sogndal scores more

25%

Aalesund at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Aalesund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'

H. FridjonssonPenalty

51'

U. Fredriksen

55'

H. Guèye

58'

L. Kjemhus← B. Riise

64'

U. Flo← S. Jensen

73'

T. Agdestein← H. Fridjonsson

74'

J. Grønner← O. Lie

77'

A. Adams← T. Totland

90+1'

S. Sæthre← A. Arnarson

90+4'

H. Guèye

Aalesund

Sogndal

1

Dyngeland

2

Latifu

3

Steiring

31

⚽

Fredrikse

29

▼

Totland

6

▼

8

7

30

24

▼

Jensen

18

Haugen

1

Lie

5

▼

Lie

6

Ramsteijn

22

▼

3

16

8

10

⚽

▼

Fridjonss

7

Nenass

17

Fet

14

⚽2

Guèye

Manager: L. Bohinen

73'▲T. Agdestein←▼H. Fridjonsson

74'▲J. Grønner←▼O. Lie

90+1'▲S. Sæthre←▼A. Arnarson

Aalesund substitutes

23Agdestein4Grønner15Sæthre21Hauge24Opdahl30Tkalčić41Karlsbakk

Manager: E. Bakke

58'▲L. Kjemhus←▼B. Riise

64'▲U. Flo←▼S. Jensen

77'▲A. Adams←▼T. Totland

Sogndal substitutes

22Kjemhus9Flo28Adams4Wæhler5Baranov10Mandić21Rutlin