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Aalesund vs Nest-Sotra — 1. Division 2018

Aalesund
Aalesund
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Nest-Sotra
Nest-Sotra
8/26/20181. Division1. Division · Round 21Color Line Stadion (Ålesund)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Aalesund54%
×Draw23%
Nest-Sotra24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aalesund
1.88
Nest-Sotra
1.17

Aalesund creates 61% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 31 away

creates per match

Aalesund
2.31
Nest-Sotra
1.23

allows per match

Aalesund
1.10
Nest-Sotra
1.45

finishing

Aalesund+0.00on par
Nest-Sotra+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aalesund ↓

Nest-Sotra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Aalesund or draw
76%
Aalesund or Nest-Sotra
77%
Draw or Nest-Sotra
46%

Winning margin

Aalesund wins by 2+
31%
Nest-Sotra wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Aalesund 1+ goals
85%
Aalesund 2+ goals
56%
Aalesund 3+ goals
29%
Nest-Sotra 1+ goals
69%
Nest-Sotra 2+ goals
33%
Nest-Sotra 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Aalesund (draw refunded)
70%
Nest-Sotra (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aalesund at home — creates 2.31, concedes 1.10 · 77 matches

Nest-Sotra away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.45 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aalesund attack 2.31 + Nest-Sotra defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.88

Nest-Sotra attack 1.23 + Aalesund defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Aalesund scores more
54%
level
23%
Nest-Sotra scores more
24%

Aalesund at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Aalesund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Aalesund 0–1 Nest-Sotra

Nest-Sotra beat Aalesund 1-0 in 1. Division on August 26, 2018.

The match was played at Color Line Stadion (Ålesund).