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Aalesund II vs Vard — 2. Division - Group 1 2019

Aalesund II
Aalesund II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Vard
Vard
9/18/20232. Division - Group 12. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 19Color Line Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Aalesund II44%
×Draw24%
Vard33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aalesund II
1.70
Vard
1.44

Aalesund II creates 18% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 52 away

creates per match

Aalesund II
1.38
Vard
1.10

allows per match

Aalesund II
1.77
Vard
2.02

finishing

Aalesund II+0.00on par
Vard+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aalesund II ↓

Vard →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Aalesund II or draw
67%
Aalesund II or Vard
76%
Draw or Vard
56%

Winning margin

Aalesund II wins by 2+
23%
Vard wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Aalesund II 1+ goals
82%
Aalesund II 2+ goals
51%
Aalesund II 3+ goals
24%
Vard 1+ goals
76%
Vard 2+ goals
42%
Vard 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Aalesund II (draw refunded)
57%
Vard (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aalesund II at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

Vard away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.02 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aalesund II attack 1.38 + Vard defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.70

Vard attack 1.10 + Aalesund II defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Aalesund II scores more
44%
level
24%
Vard scores more
33%

Aalesund II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Aalesund II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Division - Group 1: Aalesund II 1–0 Vard

Aalesund II beat Vard 1-0 in 2. Division - Group 1 on September 18, 2023.

The match was played at Color Line Stadion in Ålesund.