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Aalesund II vs Toten — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Aalesund II
Aalesund II
FT
7 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Toten
Toten
4/24/20223. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Girone 2 - 3Color Line Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Aalesund II82%
×Draw10%
Toten8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aalesund II
3.96
Toten
1.25

Aalesund II creates 217% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 13 away

creates per match

Aalesund II
2.84
Toten
0.69

allows per match

Aalesund II
1.81
Toten
5.08

finishing

Aalesund II+0.00on par
Toten+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aalesund II ↓

Toten →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–13%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–18%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 71% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
73%27%4.5
55%45%

Double chance

Aalesund II or draw
92%
Aalesund II or Toten
90%
Draw or Toten
18%

Winning margin

Aalesund II wins by 2+
66%
Toten wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Aalesund II 1+ goals
98%
Aalesund II 2+ goals
89%
Aalesund II 3+ goals
73%
Toten 1+ goals
71%
Toten 2+ goals
36%
Toten 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Aalesund II (draw refunded)
91%
Toten (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aalesund II at home — creates 2.84, concedes 1.81 · 31 matches

Toten away — creates 0.69, concedes 5.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aalesund II attack 2.84 + Toten defence 5.08 → ÷2 → 3.96

Toten attack 0.69 + Aalesund II defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Aalesund II scores more
82%
level
10%
Toten scores more
8%

Aalesund II at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Aalesund II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aalesund II vs Toten

Aalesund II beat Toten 7-0 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on April 24, 2022.

The match was played at Color Line Stadion in Ålesund.