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Aalesund II vs Tiller — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Aalesund II
Aalesund II
CANC
14:00
Tiller
Tiller
8/8/20203. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Girone 5 - 1Color Line Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Aalesund II38%
×Draw21%
Tiller40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aalesund II
1.93
Tiller
1.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 32 away

creates per match

Aalesund II
1.63
Tiller
2.00

allows per match

Aalesund II
1.95
Tiller
2.22

finishing

Aalesund II+0.00on par
Tiller+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aalesund II ↓

Tiller →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Aalesund II or draw
60%
Aalesund II or Tiller
79%
Draw or Tiller
62%

Winning margin

Aalesund II wins by 2+
21%
Tiller wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Aalesund II 1+ goals
85%
Aalesund II 2+ goals
57%
Aalesund II 3+ goals
30%
Tiller 1+ goals
86%
Tiller 2+ goals
59%
Tiller 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Aalesund II (draw refunded)
49%
Tiller (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aalesund II at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.95 · 19 matches

Tiller away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.22 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aalesund II attack 1.63 + Tiller defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.93

Tiller attack 2.00 + Aalesund II defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Aalesund II scores more
38%
level
21%
Tiller scores more
40%

Tiller at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tiller will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Aalesund II host Tiller

August 8, 2020: Aalesund II take on Tiller in 3. Division - Girone 5. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Aalesund II host Tiller at Color Line Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.