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Aalesund II vs Spjelkavik — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Aalesund II
Aalesund II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Spjelkavik
Spjelkavik
4/7/20243. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 1Color Line Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Aalesund II32%
×Draw21%
Spjelkavik47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aalesund II
1.65
Spjelkavik
2.03

Spjelkavik creates 23% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Aalesund II
1.63
Spjelkavik
2.11

allows per match

Aalesund II
1.95
Spjelkavik
1.68

finishing

Aalesund II+0.00on par
Spjelkavik+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aalesund II ↓

Spjelkavik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Aalesund II or draw
53%
Aalesund II or Spjelkavik
79%
Draw or Spjelkavik
68%

Winning margin

Aalesund II wins by 2+
15%
Spjelkavik wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Aalesund II 1+ goals
81%
Aalesund II 2+ goals
49%
Aalesund II 3+ goals
23%
Spjelkavik 1+ goals
87%
Spjelkavik 2+ goals
60%
Spjelkavik 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Aalesund II (draw refunded)
41%
Spjelkavik (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aalesund II at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.95 · 19 matches

Spjelkavik away — creates 2.11, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aalesund II attack 1.63 + Spjelkavik defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.65

Spjelkavik attack 2.11 + Aalesund II defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Aalesund II scores more
32%
level
21%
Spjelkavik scores more
47%

Spjelkavik at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Spjelkavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 5: Aalesund II 2–1 Spjelkavik

Aalesund II beat Spjelkavik 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on April 7, 2024.

The match was played at Color Line Stadion in Ålesund.