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Aalesund II vs Rosenborg II — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Aalesund II
Aalesund II
Preview
16:00
Rosenborg II
Rosenborg II
9/28/20263. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Round 21
49%
Aalesund II
model favours
49%20%31%

Rosenborg II have won 3 of the last 3 meetings

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
79%
over 2.5 goals
76%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Aalesund II49%
×Draw20%
Rosenborg II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aalesund II
2.36
Rosenborg II
1.85

Aalesund II creates 28% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 19 away

creates per match

Aalesund II
2.84
Rosenborg II
1.89

allows per match

Aalesund II
1.81
Rosenborg II
1.89

finishing

Aalesund II+0.00on par
Rosenborg II+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aalesund II ↓

Rosenborg II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Aalesund II or draw
69%
Aalesund II or Rosenborg II
80%
Draw or Rosenborg II
51%

Winning margin

Aalesund II wins by 2+
30%
Rosenborg II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Aalesund II 1+ goals
90%
Aalesund II 2+ goals
68%
Aalesund II 3+ goals
41%
Rosenborg II 1+ goals
84%
Rosenborg II 2+ goals
55%
Rosenborg II 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Aalesund II (draw refunded)
62%
Rosenborg II (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aalesund II at home — creates 2.84, concedes 1.81 · 31 matches

Rosenborg II away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.89 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aalesund II attack 2.84 + Rosenborg II defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.36

Rosenborg II attack 1.89 + Aalesund II defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Aalesund II scores more
49%
level
20%
Rosenborg II scores more
31%

Aalesund II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Aalesund II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Their last 3 meetings averaged 5.3 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
II
LLWWW
II
WDWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Aalesund II host Rosenborg II

September 28, 2026: Aalesund II take on Rosenborg II in 3. Division - Girone 2. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.