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Aalesund II vs Orkla — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Aalesund II
Aalesund II
FT
1 – 2
Orkla
Orkla
8/21/20213. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Girone 5 - 3Color Line Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Aalesund II49%
×Draw21%
Orkla30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aalesund II
2.21
Orkla
1.71

Aalesund II creates 29% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 33 away

creates per match

Aalesund II
1.63
Orkla
1.48

allows per match

Aalesund II
1.95
Orkla
2.79

finishing

Aalesund II+0.00on par
Orkla+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aalesund II ↓

Orkla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Aalesund II or draw
70%
Aalesund II or Orkla
79%
Draw or Orkla
51%

Winning margin

Aalesund II wins by 2+
29%
Orkla wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Aalesund II 1+ goals
89%
Aalesund II 2+ goals
65%
Aalesund II 3+ goals
38%
Orkla 1+ goals
82%
Orkla 2+ goals
51%
Orkla 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Aalesund II (draw refunded)
62%
Orkla (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aalesund II at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.95 · 19 matches

Orkla away — creates 1.48, concedes 2.79 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aalesund II attack 1.63 + Orkla defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.21

Orkla attack 1.48 + Aalesund II defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Aalesund II scores more
49%
level
21%
Orkla scores more
30%

Aalesund II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Aalesund II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aalesund II vs Orkla

Orkla beat Aalesund II 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on August 21, 2021.

The match was played at Color Line Stadion in Ålesund.