Aalesund II 1–3 Molde II: Result & Stats

Aalesund II

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Molde II

6/20/2024

3. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 12Color Line Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Aalesund II41%

×Draw22%

Molde II38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aalesund IIExpected goals in this matchMolde II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.82

Aalesund II

1.89

Molde II

1.82

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 20 away

1.63

creates per match

1.70

1.95

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

Aalesund II

1.63

Molde II

1.70

allows per match

Aalesund II

1.95

Molde II

2.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aalesund II+0.00on par

Molde II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aalesund II ↓

Molde II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Aalesund II or draw

62%

Aalesund II or Molde II

78%

Draw or Molde II

59%

Winning margin

Aalesund II wins by 2+

22%

Molde II wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Aalesund II 1+ goals

85%

Aalesund II 2+ goals

56%

Aalesund II 3+ goals

29%

Molde II 1+ goals

84%

Molde II 2+ goals

54%

Molde II 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Aalesund II (draw refunded)

52%

Molde II (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aalesund II at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.95 · 19 matches

Molde II away — creates 1.70, concedes 2.15 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aalesund II attack 1.63 + Molde II defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.89

Molde II attack 1.70 + Aalesund II defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Aalesund II scores more

41%

level

22%

Molde II scores more

38%

Aalesund II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Aalesund II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff