Aalesund II 1–2 Lørenskog: Result & Stats

Aalesund II

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Lørenskog

9/29/2024

3. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 23Color Line Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Aalesund II20%

×Draw21%

Lørenskog59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aalesund IIExpected goals in this matchLørenskog

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

2.09

Aalesund II

1.13

Lørenskog

2.09

Lørenskog creates 85% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 13 away

1.63

creates per match

2.23

1.95

allows per match

0.62

creates per match

Aalesund II

1.63

Lørenskog

2.23

allows per match

Aalesund II

1.95

Lørenskog

0.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aalesund II+0.00on par

Lørenskog+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aalesund II ↓

Lørenskog →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Aalesund II or draw

41%

Aalesund II or Lørenskog

79%

Draw or Lørenskog

80%

Winning margin

Aalesund II wins by 2+

8%

Lørenskog wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Aalesund II 1+ goals

68%

Aalesund II 2+ goals

31%

Aalesund II 3+ goals

11%

Lørenskog 1+ goals

88%

Lørenskog 2+ goals

62%

Lørenskog 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Aalesund II (draw refunded)

25%

Lørenskog (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aalesund II at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.95 · 19 matches

Lørenskog away — creates 2.23, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aalesund II attack 1.63 + Lørenskog defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 1.13

Lørenskog attack 2.23 + Aalesund II defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Aalesund II scores more

20%

level

21%

Lørenskog scores more

59%

Lørenskog at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Lørenskog will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff