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Aalesund II vs Kongsvinger II — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Aalesund II
Aalesund II
FT
6 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Kongsvinger II
Kongsvinger II
H. M. Melland 90', 11'
J. Kitolano 53'
B. M. Kristensen 43', 39', 5'
8/29/20223. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Girone 2 - 18Color Line Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Aalesund II65%
×Draw17%
Kongsvinger II18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aalesund II
2.80
Kongsvinger II
1.45

Aalesund II creates 93% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 13 away

creates per match

Aalesund II
2.84
Kongsvinger II
1.08

allows per match

Aalesund II
1.81
Kongsvinger II
2.77

finishing

Aalesund II+0.00on par
Kongsvinger II+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aalesund II ↓

Kongsvinger II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Aalesund II or draw
82%
Aalesund II or Kongsvinger II
83%
Draw or Kongsvinger II
35%

Winning margin

Aalesund II wins by 2+
44%
Kongsvinger II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Aalesund II 1+ goals
94%
Aalesund II 2+ goals
76%
Aalesund II 3+ goals
52%
Kongsvinger II 1+ goals
77%
Kongsvinger II 2+ goals
42%
Kongsvinger II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Aalesund II (draw refunded)
78%
Kongsvinger II (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aalesund II at home — creates 2.84, concedes 1.81 · 31 matches

Kongsvinger II away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aalesund II attack 2.84 + Kongsvinger II defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 2.80

Kongsvinger II attack 1.08 + Aalesund II defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Aalesund II scores more
65%
level
17%
Kongsvinger II scores more
18%

Aalesund II at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Aalesund II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
B. M. Kristensen
11'
H. M. Melland
39'
B. M. Kristensen
43'
B. M. Kristensen
53'
J. Kitolano
90'
H. M. Melland

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 2: Aalesund II 6–0 Kongsvinger II

Aalesund II beat Kongsvinger II 6-0 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on August 29, 2022.

Goals: B. M. Kristensen (5', 39', 43'), H. M. Melland (11', 90'), J. Kitolano (53').

The match was played at Color Line Stadion in Ålesund.