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Aalesund II vs Kolstad — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Aalesund II
Aalesund II
CANC
14:00
Kolstad
Kolstad
9/19/20203. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Girone 5 - 7Color Line Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Aalesund II53%
×Draw19%
Kolstad28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aalesund II
2.55
Kolstad
1.84

Aalesund II creates 39% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 33 away

creates per match

Aalesund II
1.63
Kolstad
1.73

allows per match

Aalesund II
1.95
Kolstad
3.48

finishing

Aalesund II+0.00on par
Kolstad+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aalesund II ↓

Kolstad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Aalesund II or draw
72%
Aalesund II or Kolstad
81%
Draw or Kolstad
47%

Winning margin

Aalesund II wins by 2+
33%
Kolstad wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Aalesund II 1+ goals
92%
Aalesund II 2+ goals
72%
Aalesund II 3+ goals
46%
Kolstad 1+ goals
84%
Kolstad 2+ goals
55%
Kolstad 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Aalesund II (draw refunded)
65%
Kolstad (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aalesund II at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.95 · 19 matches

Kolstad away — creates 1.73, concedes 3.48 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aalesund II attack 1.63 + Kolstad defence 3.48 → ÷2 → 2.55

Kolstad attack 1.73 + Aalesund II defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Aalesund II scores more
53%
level
19%
Kolstad scores more
28%

Aalesund II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Aalesund II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Aalesund II host Kolstad

September 19, 2020: Aalesund II take on Kolstad in 3. Division - Girone 5. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Aalesund II host Kolstad at Color Line Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.