Aalesund II 1–2 Kjelsås: Result & Stats

Aalesund II

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Kjelsås

8/28/2023

2. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 17Ratvika Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Aalesund II37%

×Draw26%

Kjelsås37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aalesund IIExpected goals in this matchKjelsås

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.36

Aalesund II

1.35

Kjelsås

1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 19 away

1.38

creates per match

0.95

1.77

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Aalesund II

1.38

Kjelsås

0.95

allows per match

Aalesund II

1.77

Kjelsås

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aalesund II+0.00on par

Kjelsås+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aalesund II ↓

Kjelsås →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Aalesund II or draw

63%

Aalesund II or Kjelsås

74%

Draw or Kjelsås

63%

Winning margin

Aalesund II wins by 2+

17%

Kjelsås wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Aalesund II 1+ goals

74%

Aalesund II 2+ goals

39%

Aalesund II 3+ goals

15%

Kjelsås 1+ goals

74%

Kjelsås 2+ goals

39%

Kjelsås 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Aalesund II (draw refunded)

50%

Kjelsås (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aalesund II at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

Kjelsås away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aalesund II attack 1.38 + Kjelsås defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.35

Kjelsås attack 0.95 + Aalesund II defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Aalesund II scores more

37%

level

26%

Kjelsås scores more

37%

Aalesund II at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Aalesund II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff