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Aalesund II vs IF Ready — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Aalesund II
Aalesund II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
IF Ready
IF Ready
5/5/20243. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 5Color Line Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Aalesund II35%
×Draw22%
IF Ready43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aalesund II
1.74
IF Ready
1.94

IF Ready creates 11% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 13 away

creates per match

Aalesund II
1.63
IF Ready
1.92

allows per match

Aalesund II
1.95
IF Ready
1.85

finishing

Aalesund II+0.00on par
IF Ready+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aalesund II ↓

IF Ready →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Aalesund II or draw
57%
Aalesund II or IF Ready
78%
Draw or IF Ready
65%

Winning margin

Aalesund II wins by 2+
18%
IF Ready wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Aalesund II 1+ goals
82%
Aalesund II 2+ goals
52%
Aalesund II 3+ goals
25%
IF Ready 1+ goals
86%
IF Ready 2+ goals
58%
IF Ready 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Aalesund II (draw refunded)
45%
IF Ready (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aalesund II at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.95 · 19 matches

IF Ready away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aalesund II attack 1.63 + IF Ready defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.74

IF Ready attack 1.92 + Aalesund II defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Aalesund II scores more
35%
level
22%
IF Ready scores more
43%

IF Ready at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "IF Ready will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 5: Aalesund II 1–0 IF Ready

Aalesund II beat IF Ready 1-0 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on May 5, 2024.

The match was played at Color Line Stadion in Ålesund.