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Aalesund II vs Bjørkelangen — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Aalesund II
Aalesund II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Bjørkelangen
Bjørkelangen
E. Olsen 87'
O. Vestreng 76'
7/28/20243. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 14Color Line Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Aalesund II34%
×Draw23%
Bjørkelangen44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aalesund II
1.58
Bjørkelangen
1.82

Bjørkelangen creates 15% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 13 away

creates per match

Aalesund II
1.63
Bjørkelangen
1.69

allows per match

Aalesund II
1.95
Bjørkelangen
1.54

finishing

Aalesund II+0.00on par
Bjørkelangen+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aalesund II ↓

Bjørkelangen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Aalesund II or draw
56%
Aalesund II or Bjørkelangen
77%
Draw or Bjørkelangen
66%

Winning margin

Aalesund II wins by 2+
16%
Bjørkelangen wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Aalesund II 1+ goals
79%
Aalesund II 2+ goals
47%
Aalesund II 3+ goals
21%
Bjørkelangen 1+ goals
84%
Bjørkelangen 2+ goals
54%
Bjørkelangen 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Aalesund II (draw refunded)
44%
Bjørkelangen (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aalesund II at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.95 · 19 matches

Bjørkelangen away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aalesund II attack 1.63 + Bjørkelangen defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.58

Bjørkelangen attack 1.69 + Aalesund II defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Aalesund II scores more
34%
level
23%
Bjørkelangen scores more
44%

Bjørkelangen at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bjørkelangen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

76'
O. Vestreng
87'
E. Olsen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aalesund II vs Bjørkelangen

Bjørkelangen beat Aalesund II 2-0 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on July 28, 2024.

Goals: O. Vestreng (76'), E. Olsen (87').

The match was played at Color Line Stadion in Ålesund.