Aalborg 1–1 Naestved: Result & Stats | 1. Division

Aalborg

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Naestved

8/18/2023

1. Division · Round 5Aalborg Portland Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Aalborg55%

×Draw22%

Naestved23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AalborgExpected goals in this matchNaestved

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.15

Aalborg

1.92

Naestved

1.15

Aalborg creates 67% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 65 away

2.06

creates per match

1.05

1.25

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Aalborg

2.06

Naestved

1.05

allows per match

Aalborg

1.25

Naestved

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aalborg+0.00on par

Naestved+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aalborg ↓

Naestved →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Aalborg or draw

77%

Aalborg or Naestved

78%

Draw or Naestved

45%

Winning margin

Aalborg wins by 2+

32%

Naestved wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Aalborg 1+ goals

85%

Aalborg 2+ goals

57%

Aalborg 3+ goals

30%

Naestved 1+ goals

68%

Naestved 2+ goals

32%

Naestved 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Aalborg (draw refunded)

71%

Naestved (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aalborg at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.25 · 32 matches

Naestved away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.78 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aalborg attack 2.06 + Naestved defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.92

Naestved attack 1.05 + Aalborg defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Aalborg scores more

55%

level

22%

Naestved scores more

23%

Aalborg at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Aalborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff