Sunderland 0–4 Aston Villa: Result & Stats

Sunderland

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 4

Aston Villa

C. Benteke 44', 16'

G. Agbonlahor 37', 18'

3/14/2015

Premier League · Round 29Stadium of Light

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Sunderland40%

×Draw27%

Aston Villa33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SunderlandExpected goals in this matchAston Villa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.17

Sunderland

1.32

Aston Villa

1.17

Sunderland creates 13% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 29 away

1.06

creates per match

1.14

1.20

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Sunderland

1.06

Aston Villa

1.14

allows per match

Sunderland

1.20

Aston Villa

1.58

+0.26scores more than expected

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

Sunderland+0.26scores more

Aston Villa+0.03on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunderland ↓

Aston Villa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sunderland or draw

67%

Sunderland or Aston Villa

73%

Draw or Aston Villa

60%

Winning margin

Sunderland wins by 2+

18%

Aston Villa wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Sunderland 1+ goals

73%

Sunderland 2+ goals

38%

Sunderland 3+ goals

15%

Aston Villa 1+ goals

69%

Aston Villa 2+ goals

33%

Aston Villa 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sunderland (draw refunded)

55%

Aston Villa (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sunderland at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.20 · 19 matches

Aston Villa away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.58 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sunderland attack 1.06 + Aston Villa defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.32

Aston Villa attack 1.14 + Sunderland defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sunderland scores more

40%

level

27%

Aston Villa scores more

33%

Sunderland at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sunderland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

Leandro Bacuna

16'

C. Benteke↳ L. Bacuna

18'

G. Agbonlahor↳ C. Clark

37'

G. Agbonlahor↳ C. N'Zogbia

44'

C. Benteke↳ L. Bacuna

46'

C. Wickham← R. Álvarez

64'

C. Sánchez← C. Clark

79'

A. Weimann← C. NZogbia

83'

D. Graham← S. Fletcher

83'

R. Hepburn-Murphy← C. Benteke

90'

Liam Bridcutt

Possession

Statistics

SunderlandAston

Overview

40%Possession60%

2Corners5

10Fouls9

Shots

3On Target8

5Off Target6

Passing

40%Possession60%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls9

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

2Offsides0