AaB W 1–4 Fortuna Hjørring W: Result & Stats

AaB W

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Fortuna Hjørring W

10/17/2020

Kvindeliga · Round 11Aalborg Portland Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

AaB W12%

×Draw20%

Fortuna Hjørring W68%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AaB WExpected goals in this matchFortuna Hjørring W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.73

2.06

AaB W

0.73

Fortuna Hjørring W

2.06

Fortuna Hjørring W creates 182% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 80 away

0.45

creates per match

1.93

2.18

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

AaB W

0.45

Fortuna Hjørring W

1.93

allows per match

AaB W

2.18

Fortuna Hjørring W

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AaB W+0.00on par

Fortuna Hjørring W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AaB W ↓

Fortuna Hjørring W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–113%

0–213%

0–39%

0–45%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–13%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

AaB W or draw

32%

AaB W or Fortuna Hjørring W

80%

Draw or Fortuna Hjørring W

88%

Winning margin

AaB W wins by 2+

3%

Fortuna Hjørring W wins by 2+

43%

Team goals

AaB W 1+ goals

52%

AaB W 2+ goals

17%

AaB W 3+ goals

4%

Fortuna Hjørring W 1+ goals

87%

Fortuna Hjørring W 2+ goals

61%

Fortuna Hjørring W 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

AaB W (draw refunded)

15%

Fortuna Hjørring W (draw refunded)

85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AaB W at home — creates 0.45, concedes 2.18 · 22 matches

Fortuna Hjørring W away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.02 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AaB W attack 0.45 + Fortuna Hjørring W defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.73

Fortuna Hjørring W attack 1.93 + AaB W defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

AaB W scores more

12%

level

20%

Fortuna Hjørring W scores more

68%

Fortuna Hjørring W at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Fortuna Hjørring W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff