AaB II 3–1 Djursland: Result & Stats | League #127

AaB II

FT

3 – 1

Djursland

8/27/2022

League #127 · Group 4 - 5AaB's Anlæg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

AaB II44%

×Draw25%

Djursland31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AaB IIExpected goals in this matchDjursland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.27

AaB II

1.55

Djursland

1.27

AaB II creates 22% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

1.67

creates per match

1.22

1.33

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

AaB II

1.67

Djursland

1.22

allows per match

AaB II

1.33

Djursland

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AaB II+0.00on par

Djursland+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AaB II ↓

Djursland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

AaB II or draw

69%

AaB II or Djursland

75%

Draw or Djursland

56%

Winning margin

AaB II wins by 2+

22%

Djursland wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

AaB II 1+ goals

79%

AaB II 2+ goals

46%

AaB II 3+ goals

20%

Djursland 1+ goals

72%

Djursland 2+ goals

36%

Djursland 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

AaB II (draw refunded)

58%

Djursland (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AaB II at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Djursland away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AaB II attack 1.67 + Djursland defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.55

Djursland attack 1.22 + AaB II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

AaB II scores more

44%

level

25%

Djursland scores more

31%

AaB II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "AaB II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff