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AaB II vs Aalborg Freja — League #126 2026

AaB II
AaB II
FT
5 – 1
Aalborg Freja
Aalborg Freja
6/11/2016League #126League #126 · Round 25AaB's Anlæg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

AaB II75%
×Draw14%
Aalborg Freja11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AaB II
3.11
Aalborg Freja
1.17

AaB II creates 166% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 3 away

creates per match

AaB II
2.22
Aalborg Freja
1.00

allows per match

AaB II
1.33
Aalborg Freja
4.00

finishing

AaB II+0.00on par
Aalborg Freja+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AaB II ↓

Aalborg Freja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

AaB II or draw
89%
AaB II or Aalborg Freja
86%
Draw or Aalborg Freja
25%

Winning margin

AaB II wins by 2+
55%
Aalborg Freja wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

AaB II 1+ goals
95%
AaB II 2+ goals
81%
AaB II 3+ goals
58%
Aalborg Freja 1+ goals
69%
Aalborg Freja 2+ goals
33%
Aalborg Freja 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

AaB II (draw refunded)
87%
Aalborg Freja (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AaB II at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

Aalborg Freja away — creates 1.00, concedes 4.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AaB II attack 2.22 + Aalborg Freja defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.11

Aalborg Freja attack 1.00 + AaB II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

AaB II scores more
75%
level
14%
Aalborg Freja scores more
11%

AaB II at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "AaB II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #126: AaB II 5–1 Aalborg Freja

AaB II beat Aalborg Freja 5-1 in League #126 on June 11, 2016.

The match was played at AaB's Anlæg in Aalborg.