AA Iguaçu 1–1 Paranavaí: Result & Stats

AA Iguaçu

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Paranavaí

Maikinho 72'

Riquelme 90+2'

6/1/2025

Paranaense - 2 · 1st Phase - 8Estádio Municipal Antiocho Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

AA Iguaçu36%

×Draw26%

Paranavaí38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AA IguaçuExpected goals in this matchParanavaí

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.36

AA Iguaçu

1.30

Paranavaí

1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

1.50

creates per match

1.40

1.33

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

AA Iguaçu

1.50

Paranavaí

1.40

allows per match

AA Iguaçu

1.33

Paranavaí

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AA Iguaçu+0.00on par

Paranavaí+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AA Iguaçu ↓

Paranavaí →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

AA Iguaçu or draw

62%

AA Iguaçu or Paranavaí

74%

Draw or Paranavaí

64%

Winning margin

AA Iguaçu wins by 2+

16%

Paranavaí wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

AA Iguaçu 1+ goals

73%

AA Iguaçu 2+ goals

37%

AA Iguaçu 3+ goals

14%

Paranavaí 1+ goals

74%

Paranavaí 2+ goals

39%

Paranavaí 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

AA Iguaçu (draw refunded)

48%

Paranavaí (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AA Iguaçu at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Paranavaí away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AA Iguaçu attack 1.50 + Paranavaí defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.30

Paranavaí attack 1.40 + AA Iguaçu defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

AA Iguaçu scores more

36%

level

26%

Paranavaí scores more

38%

Paranavaí at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Paranavaí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

72'

Maikinho

90+2'

Riquelme

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff