AA Iguaçu 1–4 Nacional PR: Result & Stats

AA Iguaçu

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Nacional PR

P. Henrique 19'

R. Stard 83'

L. Paulo 76'

Nathan Junior 30' (pen), 10'

6/16/2024

Paranaense - 2 · 1st Phase - 7Estádio Municipal Antiocho Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

AA Iguaçu42%

×Draw26%

Nacional PR32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AA IguaçuExpected goals in this matchNacional PR

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.19

AA Iguaçu

1.40

Nacional PR

1.19

AA Iguaçu creates 18% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 18 away

1.24

creates per match

1.28

1.10

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

AA Iguaçu

1.24

Nacional PR

1.28

allows per match

AA Iguaçu

1.10

Nacional PR

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AA Iguaçu+0.00on par

Nacional PR+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AA Iguaçu ↓

Nacional PR →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

AA Iguaçu or draw

68%

AA Iguaçu or Nacional PR

74%

Draw or Nacional PR

58%

Winning margin

AA Iguaçu wins by 2+

20%

Nacional PR wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

AA Iguaçu 1+ goals

75%

AA Iguaçu 2+ goals

41%

AA Iguaçu 3+ goals

17%

Nacional PR 1+ goals

70%

Nacional PR 2+ goals

33%

Nacional PR 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

AA Iguaçu (draw refunded)

57%

Nacional PR (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AA Iguaçu at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.10 · 21 matches

Nacional PR away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AA Iguaçu attack 1.24 + Nacional PR defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.40

Nacional PR attack 1.28 + AA Iguaçu defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

AA Iguaçu scores more

42%

level

26%

Nacional PR scores more

32%

AA Iguaçu at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "AA Iguaçu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

Nathan Junior

19'

P. Henrique

30'

Nathan JuniorPenalty

76'

L. Paulo

83'

R. Stard

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff