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AA Iguaçu vs Laranja Mecânica — Paranaense - 2 2025

AA Iguaçu
AA Iguaçu
FT
0 – 0
Laranja Mecânica
Laranja Mecânica
4/10/2022Paranaense - 2Paranaense - 2 · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Municipal Antiocho Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

AA Iguaçu43%
×Draw29%
Laranja Mecânica28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AA Iguaçu
1.23
Laranja Mecânica
0.94

AA Iguaçu creates 31% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

creates per match

AA Iguaçu
1.38
Laranja Mecânica
0.64

allows per match

AA Iguaçu
1.23
Laranja Mecânica
1.07

finishing

AA Iguaçu+0.00on par
Laranja Mecânica+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AA Iguaçu ↓

Laranja Mecânica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

AA Iguaçu or draw
72%
AA Iguaçu or Laranja Mecânica
71%
Draw or Laranja Mecânica
57%

Winning margin

AA Iguaçu wins by 2+
19%
Laranja Mecânica wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

AA Iguaçu 1+ goals
71%
AA Iguaçu 2+ goals
35%
AA Iguaçu 3+ goals
13%
Laranja Mecânica 1+ goals
61%
Laranja Mecânica 2+ goals
24%
Laranja Mecânica 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

AA Iguaçu (draw refunded)
60%
Laranja Mecânica (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AA Iguaçu at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

Laranja Mecânica away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AA Iguaçu attack 1.38 + Laranja Mecânica defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.23

Laranja Mecânica attack 0.64 + AA Iguaçu defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

AA Iguaçu scores more
43%
level
29%
Laranja Mecânica scores more
28%

AA Iguaçu at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "AA Iguaçu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paranaense - 2: AA Iguaçu 0–0 Laranja Mecânica

AA Iguaçu and Laranja Mecânica drew 0-0 in Paranaense - 2 on April 10, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Antiocho Pereira in União da Vitória, Paraná.