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AA Iguaçu vs Batel — Paranaense - 2 2025

AA Iguaçu
AA Iguaçu
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Batel
Batel
Nixon 54'
Nino Mipibu 8'
Fabio 65'
Robinho 49'
G. Majela 18'
4/27/2025Paranaense - 2Paranaense - 2 · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Municipal Antiocho Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

AA Iguaçu47%
×Draw25%
Batel29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AA Iguaçu
1.61
Batel
1.21

AA Iguaçu creates 33% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

creates per match

AA Iguaçu
1.50
Batel
1.09

allows per match

AA Iguaçu
1.33
Batel
1.73

finishing

AA Iguaçu+0.00on par
Batel+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AA Iguaçu ↓

Batel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

AA Iguaçu or draw
71%
AA Iguaçu or Batel
75%
Draw or Batel
53%

Winning margin

AA Iguaçu wins by 2+
24%
Batel wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

AA Iguaçu 1+ goals
80%
AA Iguaçu 2+ goals
48%
AA Iguaçu 3+ goals
22%
Batel 1+ goals
70%
Batel 2+ goals
34%
Batel 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

AA Iguaçu (draw refunded)
62%
Batel (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AA Iguaçu at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Batel away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AA Iguaçu attack 1.50 + Batel defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.61

Batel attack 1.09 + AA Iguaçu defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

AA Iguaçu scores more
47%
level
25%
Batel scores more
29%

AA Iguaçu at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "AA Iguaçu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
Nino Mipibu
18'
G. Majela
49'
Robinho
54'
Nixon
65'
Fabio

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AA Iguaçu vs Batel

Batel beat AA Iguaçu 3-2 in Paranaense - 2 on April 27, 2025.

Goals: Nino Mipibu (8'), G. Majela (18'), Robinho (49'), Nixon (54'), Fabio (65').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Antiocho Pereira in União da Vitória, Paraná.